{"id":8299,"date":"2021-08-15T21:18:32","date_gmt":"2021-08-15T13:18:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/?p=8299"},"modified":"2024-04-04T01:30:55","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T17:30:55","slug":"%e5%93%88%e5%88%a9%c2%b7%e6%b3%a2%e7%89%b9%e7%b3%bb%e5%88%97%e7%94%b5%e5%bd%b1%e7%9a%84%e5%ae%a2%e8%a7%82%e8%af%84%e4%bb%b7%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8e%e5%8f%b0%e8%af%8d%e6%83%85%e6%84%9f%e7%9a%84%e8%87%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/site\/works\/dhjournal\/202101\/8299.html","title":{"rendered":"\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7:\u57fa\u4e8e\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u5206\u5f62\u5206\u6790"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u80e1\u542f\u6708 \u5218\u5f6c \u9ad8\u5251\u6ce2\uff1b\u8f6c\u81ea\uff1a\u516c\u4f17\u53f7 DH\u6570\u5b57\u4eba\u6587<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#60569a\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u200b\u6587\u672c\u5206\u6790<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_png\/8sMHLojeGW4zPYgnEytpAeicsXH3OLavAJdrlmHtDlYEZKRoDyciaqteTicUD1SXq0YPebYwg2sE2w1gkJCgs6Lug\/640?wx_fmt=png\" style=\"width: 650px;\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u80e1\u542f\u6708&nbsp;\/&nbsp;\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u5730\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u90e8<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u5218\u5f6c&nbsp;\/&nbsp;\u5e7f\u897f\u5927\u5b66\u5546\u5b66\u9662<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u9ad8\u5251\u6ce2&nbsp;\/&nbsp;\u5317\u4eac\u5e08\u8303\u5927\u5b66\u5730\u7406\u79d1\u5b66\u5b66\u90e8(\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u6458\u8981:<\/span><\/strong>\u81ea\u95ee\u4e16\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u539f\u8457\u548c\u7535\u5f71\u5c31\u5e7f\u53d7\u597d\u8bc4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u513f\u7ae5\uff0c\u4e5f\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u6210\u4eba\uff0c\u5728\u70c2\u756a\u8304(Rotten Tomatoes)\u548c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7535\u5f71\u8d44\u6599\u5e93(IMDb)\u4e24\u5927\u5f71\u8bc4\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u6536\u83b7\u4e86\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u53e3\u7891\uff0c\u53d6\u5f97\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u5546\u4e1a\u6210\u529f\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u673a\u6784\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u4ee5\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u4e3a\u5207\u5165\u70b9\u627e\u5230\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u6307\u6807?\u5229\u7528\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53c2\u6570Hurst\u6307\u6570\u6765\u8868\u5f81\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u53d8\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570(H)\u4ecb\u4e8e0.5\u548c0.7\u4e4b\u95f4\uff0c\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7535\u5f71\u65e2\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8ba9\u6545\u4e8b\u60c5\u8282\u6709\u8f83\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u5c55\u5f00\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6bd4\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u70c2\u756a\u8304\u548cIMDb\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u4eec\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u5173\u7cfb\uff0c\u8868\u660eHurst\u6307\u6570\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u5ba2\u89c2\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u5e76\u4e3a\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u5224\u65ad\u65b0\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u5426\u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u63d0\u4f9b\u53c2\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u5173\u952e\u8bcd:<\/span><\/strong>\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279 \u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790 \u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u5206\u5f62\u5206\u6790(AFA)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u524d \u8a00<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u300a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u5c0f\u8bf4\u81ea\u95ee\u4e16\u4ee5\u6765\u5c31\u98ce\u9761\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7531J. K.\u7f57\u7433\u4e00\u624b\u7f14\u9020\u7684\u9b54\u6cd5\u4e16\u754c\u62e5\u6709\u5e9e\u5927\u7684\u7c89\u4e1d\u7fa4\u4f53\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6\u5404\u4e2a\u5e74\u9f84\u6bb5\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u65e0\u6570\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u6000\u6240\u5728\u3002\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5c0f\u8bf4\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u7ffb\u8bd1\u621080\u591a\u79cd\u8bed\u8a00\uff0c\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7684\u9500\u91cf\u8d85\u8fc75\u4ebf\u518c\uff0c<sup>[1]<\/sup>\u7531\u5176\u6539\u7f16\u800c\u6765\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u5728\u5168\u7403\u521b\u9020\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc777\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7968\u623f\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<sup>[2]<\/sup>\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u6545\u4e8b\u4e3b\u8981\u8bb2\u8ff0\u4e86\u54c8\u5229\u548c\u4f0f\u5730\u9b54\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u6597\u4e89\uff0c\u5b57\u91cc\u884c\u95f4\u8574\u542b\u7740\u4e30\u5bcc\u7684\u60c5\u611f\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u4eb2\u60c5\u3001\u53cb\u60c5\u3001\u5e08\u751f\u60c5\u4ee5\u53ca\u9010\u6e10\u957f\u5927\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u89d2\u8272\u4e4b\u95f4\u61f5\u61c2\u800c\u9752\u6da9\u7684\u7231\u60c5\u3002\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u5728\u70c2\u756a\u8304(Rotten Tomatoes)\u548c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7535\u5f71\u8d44\u6599\u5e93(IMDb)\u4e24\u5927\u5f71\u8bc4\u7f51\u7ad9\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6536\u83b7\u4e86\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u53e3\u7891\u3002\u7136\u800c\u8fd9\u4e24\u5927\u673a\u6784\u7ed9\u51fa\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u666e\u901a\u89c2\u4f17\u6253\u5206\uff0c\u5e76\u901a\u8fc7\u4e0d\u540c\u7b97\u6cd5\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u3002\u5f88\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u8005\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u5e26\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u504f\u9887\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u4ec5\u4ece\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd(\u6587\u672c)\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u51fa\u53d1\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u6216\u4e00\u4e9b\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u5ba2\u89c2\u5730\u8bc4\u4ef7\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u5f71\u89c6\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u6210\u529f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u63a8\u65ad\u4e3a\u4f55\u5b83\u4eec\u5982\u6b64\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63a8\u5e7f\u81f3\u6574\u4e2a\u5f71\u89c6\u8bc4\u4ef7\u9886\u57df?\u89e3\u51b3\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f71\u89c6\u5267\u672c\u7684\u521b\u4f5c\u6216\u8005\u6539\u7f16\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6307\u5bfc\u610f\u4e49\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5bf9\u6587\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u5f97\u76ca\u4e8e\u89c2\u70b9\u6316\u6398\u6216\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6280\u672f\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u662f\u5728\u5de5\u7a0b\u5b66\u4e2d\u53d1\u5c55\u8d77\u6765\u7684\uff0c\u7528\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5404\u79cd\u6587\u672c\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u6539\u5584\u8425\u9500\u548c\u5ba2\u6237\u670d\u52a1\uff0c\u76d1\u6d4b\u653f\u6cbb\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7b49\uff0c<sup>[3]<\/sup>\u65e9\u671f\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bcd\u5178\uff0c\u5373\u8d4b\u4e88\u6bcf\u4e2a\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u5b57\u201d\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u201d\u4e00\u4e2a\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u201d\uff0c\u6574\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u201d\u5373\u662f\u6240\u6709\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u5b57\u201d\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u201d\u7684\u201c\u60c5\u611f\u5f97\u5206\u201d\u7684\u603b\u548c\uff0cReagan\u7b49\u4eba\u5728\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u4e866\u4e2a\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u5178\u540e\uff0c\u53d1\u73b0\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bcd\u5178\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u65b9\u6cd5\u5bf9\u8f83\u957f\u6587\u672c\u7684\u5206\u7c7b\u7cbe\u5ea6\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u5f88\u597d\u3002<sup>[4]<\/sup>\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bcd\u5178\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u5728\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8bc4\u8bba\u5206\u6790<sup>[5]<\/sup>\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u548c\u5fae\u535a\u5206\u6790<sup>[6]<\/sup>\u3001\u89c2\u70b9\u6316\u6398<sup>[7]<\/sup>\u548c\u77ed\u6587\u672c\u5206\u6790<sup>[8]<\/sup>\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u6781\u5927\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u3002\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u50ac\u751f\u4e86\u4e0d\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u8bcd\u5178\u800c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6df1\u5ea6\u5b66\u4e60\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u5ffd\u7565\u4e86\u6587\u672c\u4e2d\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ec5\u4ec5\u4f30\u8ba1\u77ed\u6587\u672c(\u5982\u63a8\u7279\u6587\u672c\u6216\u5546\u54c1\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u5f71\u89c6\u4f5c\u54c1\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7b49)\u7684\u6b63\/\u8d1f\/\u4e2d\u6027\u6781\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u53d6\u4e00\u7ec4\u5173\u952e\u5b57\u7528\u4e8e\u5173\u952e\u8bcd\u8bc4\u4f30\u548c\u89c2\u70b9\u6316\u6398\u3002\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u957f\u7bc7\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u6709\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u65b0\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u5178\u88ab\u7528\u6765\u63d0\u53d6\u4e00\u4e2a\u53cd\u6620\u957f\u6587\u672c\u53d9\u4e8b\u7ed3\u6784\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u2014\u2014\u201c\u6545\u4e8b\u5f27\u201d(Story Arc)\u3002Julian Brooke(2015)\u4ecb\u7ecd\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u540d\u4e3aGutenTag\u7684\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u8ba9\u6587\u5b66\u5b66\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u4f7f\u7528\u5b83\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u81ea\u7136\u8bed\u8a00\u5904\u7406(NLP)\u6280\u672f\u6765\u5206\u6790Gutenberg\u8bed\u6599\u5e93\u4e2d\u7684\u6587\u672c\u3002<sup>[9]<\/sup>Jockers\u548cReagan\u901a\u8fc7\u7814\u7a76\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u5916\u56fd\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u52a8\u6001\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u60c5\u611f\u66f2\u7ebf(Sentiment Arc)\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u53cd\u6620\u6545\u4e8b\u60c5\u8282\uff0c\u5e76\u5f52\u7eb3\u603b\u7ed3\u51fa\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u66f2\u7ebf\u5927\u81f4\u67096\u79cd\u3002<sup>[10]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u300a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u300b\u7cfb\u5217\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u5df2\u53d6\u5f97\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u679c\uff0cReagan(2016)\u4ece\u300a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u4e0e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5723\u5668\u300b\u539f\u8457\u4e2d\u63d0\u53d6\u4e86\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u60c5\u611f\u8d8b\u52bf\u7684\u9ad8\u6f6e\u548c\u4f4e\u8c37\u4e0e\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u60c5\u8282\u76f8\u5339\u914d\u3002<sup>[11]<\/sup>\u4e5f\u6709\u5b66\u8005\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u7cfb\u5217\u5c0f\u8bf4\u4e0e\u5176\u6539\u7f16\u7535\u5f71\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5f02\u540c\uff0cPhilip Nel(2009)\u6bd4\u8f83\u4e86\u300a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u4e0e\u963f\u5179\u5361\u73ed\u7684\u56da\u5f92\u300b\u539f\u8457\u548c\u7535\u5f71\u4e4b\u95f4\u4e3b\u8981\u60c5\u8282\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u548c\u5f71\u54cd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e86\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002<sup>[12]<\/sup>\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u63ed\u793a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u80fd\u591f\u53d6\u5f97\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\u7684\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u4e0e\u89c2\u4f17\u8bc4\u4ef7\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\u4e5f\u5904\u4e8e\u7a7a\u767d\u72b6\u6001\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd1\u671f\u5173\u4e8e\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8fdb\u5c55\u6765\u81ea\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u82f1\u8bed\u5c0f\u8bf4\u7684\u4eba\u6587\u5b66\u8005Matthew L. Jockers\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u4ed6\u5f00\u53d1\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u540d\u4e3aSyuzhet\u7684R\u8bed\u8a00\u5305\u3002<sup>[13]<\/sup>\u8be5R\u8bed\u8a00\u5305\u542b\u6709\u56db\u4e2a\u60c5\u611f\u8bcd\u5178\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3asyuzhet(Jockers\u9886\u5bfc\u7684Nebraska Literary Lab\u5f00\u53d1)\u3001affin (Finn Arup Nielsen\u5f00\u53d1)\u3001bing(Minqing Hu and Bing Liu\u5f00\u53d1)\u3001nrc(Saif M. Mohammad and Peter D. Turney\u5f00\u53d1)\uff0c\u5e76\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u80fd\u591f\u8bbf\u95ee\u65af\u5766\u798f\u5927\u5b66NLP (Natural Language Processing)\u5c0f\u7ec4\u5f00\u53d1\u7684\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u5927\u529f\u80fd\u548c\u8fd0\u7b97\u529b\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u62bd\u53d6\u5de5\u5177\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5229\u7528\u8be5R\u8bed\u8a00\u5305\u53ef\u83b7\u53d6\u4e00\u90e8\u5c0f\u8bf4\u91cc\u6bcf\u53e5\u8bdd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u503c\uff0c\u5c06\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6309\u987a\u5e8f\u6392\u5217\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u5230\u8be5\u5c0f\u8bf4\u6587\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5e8f\u5217\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u523b\u753b\u4e86\u5c0f\u8bf4\u60c5\u8282\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u4ee5\u524d\u9759\u6001\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u8574\u542b\u4e86\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u7a81\u7834\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8be5\u5206\u6790\u6240\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u6311\u6218\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5145\u5206\u523b\u753b\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u53d1\u73b0\u5176\u89c4\u5f8b\u3002\u6240\u5e78\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6311\u6218\u53ef\u7531\u968f\u673a\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u91cc\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u6982\u5ff5\u2014\u2014\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u89e3\u51b3\u3002\u8861\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6807\u662f\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684\u5173\u952e\u53c2\u6570\u2014\u2014Hurst\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u5df2\u7ecf\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u6587\u5b66\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u3002<sup>[14]<\/sup>\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6307\u6570\u5e94\u7528\u5230\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u5176\u4e0e\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u76f8\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\u5b83\u4eec\u7684\u5185\u5728\u4ef7\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u4e00\u3001\u65b9\u6cd5<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">(\u4e00)\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2<\/span><\/strong><sup><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\"><strong>[15]<\/strong><\/span><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5229\u7528Syuzhet\u62bd\u53d6\u51fa\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u6587\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8f83\u4e3a\u590d\u6742(\u89c1\u56fe2\u4e2d\u7684\u5b50\u56fe(a1)\u548c(b1))\uff0c\u4ec5\u901a\u8fc7\u89c2\u5bdf\u539f\u59cb\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u65e0\u6cd5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6211\u4eec\u4e86\u89e3\u7535\u5f71\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u52a8\u6001\u6f14\u53d8\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u53d6\u539f\u59cb\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u73b0\u6709\u5904\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f88\u591a\uff0c\u8bf8\u5982\u79fb\u52a8\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u5c0f\u6ce2\u6ee4\u6ce2\u3001\u5361\u5c14\u66fc\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7b49\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u5904\u7406\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u65f6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5747\u4e0d\u591f\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u9ad8\u5251\u6ce2(2010)\u53d1\u5c55\u4e86\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2(Nonlinear adaptive filtering)\uff0c<sup>[16]<\/sup>\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u6bd4\u5c0f\u6ce2\u6ee4\u6ce2\u7b49\u65b9\u6cd5\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u5730\u63a2\u6d4b\u5230\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5982\u4e0b:<sup>[17]<\/sup>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217X={X(t),t=0,1,2,3,&#8230;,n}\uff0c\u628aX\u5206\u6210\u82e5\u5e72\u6bb5\u6216\u8005\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u5206\u6bb5\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3\u7684\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3aw=2k+1\u4e2a\u70b9\uff0c\u4e14\u76f8\u90bb\u4e24\u6bb5\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709k+1\u4e2a\u70b9\u91cd\u53e0\u3002\u5bf9\u4e8e\u6bcf\u4e00\u5c0f\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u7528M\u9636\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u53bb\u62df\u5408\u5b83(\u5e38\u7528\u4e8c\u9636\u591a\u9879\u5f0f)\uff0c\u5f97\u5230\u6bcf\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf(\u4ee5\u56fe1(a)\u4e3a\u793a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5c06\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u5206\u4e3a3\u6bb5\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u3001\u84dd\u8272\u548c\u7eff\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u5206\u522b\u5bf9\u5e94\u8fd93\u6bb5\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf)\uff0c\u76f8\u90bb\u4e24\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u5728\u91cd\u53e0\u70b9\u4e0a\u662f\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684(\u89c1\u56fe1(a))\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u5bf9\u76f8\u90bb\u4e24\u6bb5\u8d8b\u52bf\u7ebf\u5728\u91cd\u53e0\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u62df\u5408\uff0c\u4e0d\u59a8\u5c06\u7b2ci\u6bb5\u548c\u7b2ci+1\u6bb5\u62df\u5408\u7684\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u8bb0\u4e3a:y<sup>(i)<\/sup>(l<sub>1<\/sub>&nbsp;),y<sup>(i+1)&nbsp;<\/sup>(l<sub>2<\/sub>),I<sub>1<\/sub>,l<sub>2<\/sub>=1,2,3,&#8230;,2k+1\u3002\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e24\u6bb5\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\u90e8\u5206 (l=1,2,3,&#8230;,k+1)\uff0c\u6309\u7167\u516c\u5f0f(1)\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u62df\u5408:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_png\/8sMHLojeGW7GrxYYopRjStac4FOQhjBvo4NBgCCUbFXA2rIYDz484RW6LCibldyp606tUicE2yoiagQ3Mf7V60hnw\/640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"\" width=\"242\" height=\"51\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_png\/8sMHLojeGW7GrxYYopRjStac4FOQhjBvX4QWdYW0seT5kqdtia4gUY2OGeHiaHJguZiciah5XxQfXljqmufrSHqHTg\/640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"\" width=\"208\" height=\"47\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u53ef\u4ee5\u5199\u6210<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/mmbiz.qpic.cn\/mmbiz_png\/8sMHLojeGW7GrxYYopRjStac4FOQhjBvc1IzFXqHPYLyC1zwWcvfQWv3kxKMrFnSoGHechqMcthnibE5GDlcPrA\/640?wx_fmt=png\" alt=\"\" width=\"108\" height=\"40\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684d<sub>j<\/sub>\u5206\u522b\u8868\u793a\u91cd\u53e0\u90e8\u5206\u4e0a\u7684\u70b9\u5230y<sup>(i)<\/sup>\u548cy<sup>(i+1)<\/sup>\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6743\u91cd\u968f\u7740\u70b9\u5230\u7a97\u53e3\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u8ddd\u79bb\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u51cf\u5c0f\u3002\u7ecf\u8fc7\u5bf9\u6240\u6709\u5206\u6bb5\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\u90e8\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u52a0\u6743\u62df\u5408\u540e\u5f97\u5230\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u5c40\u5e73\u6ed1\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\u4fe1\u53f7(\u89c1\u56fe1(b)\u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u8272(\u7a97\u53e3\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3a61)\u548c\u7eff\u8272(\u7a97\u53e3\u5927\u5c0f\u4e3a121)\u66f2\u7ebf\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u84dd\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u4e3a\u6574\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u7ebf\u6027\u8d8b\u52bf;\u53ef\u89c1\uff0c\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u7eff\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u6355\u6349\u539f\u59cb\u6570\u636e\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7a97\u53e3\u4e0b\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf)\u3002\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u91cd\u53e0\u5904\u7406\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u62df\u5408\u5728\u4efb\u4f55\u5730\u65b9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u90fd\u662f\u8fde\u7eed\u7684\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u975e\u8fb9\u754c\u7684\u70b9\u90fd\u662f\u5149\u6ed1\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u8fb9\u754c\u70b9\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5b58\u5728\u5de6\u5bfc\u6216\u53f3\u5bfc\u3002\u672c\u6587\u5c06\u5229\u7528\u8be5\u65b9\u6cd5\u6355\u6349\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u603b\u7ed3\u5176\u6ce2\u5f62\u7684\u89c4\u5f8b\uff0c\u4ee5\u63ed\u793a\u5982\u4f55\u5229\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2\u65b9\u6cd5\u8bc6\u522b\u7535\u5f71\u7ed3\u5c40\u7684\u7c7b\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-1024x478.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8301\" width=\"773\" height=\"361\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-1024x478.png 1024w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-300x140.png 300w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-768x358.png 768w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-1536x717.png 1536w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_4-2048x956.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 773px) 100vw, 773px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe1 \u5168\u7403\u5e74\u5747\u6c14\u6e29\u53d8\u5316\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf\u793a\u610f\u56fe(\u5b50\u56fe(a)\u662f\u5206\u6bb5\u7684\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5b50\u56fe(b)\u662f\u5229\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2\u65b9\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u7a97\u53e3\u4e0b\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">(\u4e8c)Hurst\u6307\u6570<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hurst\u6307\u6570(H)\u662f\u4ee5\u82f1\u56fd\u6c34\u6587\u4e13\u5bb6H. E. Hurst\u547d\u540d\u7684\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u6765\u8861\u91cf\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027(\u5373\u957f\u671f\u8bb0\u5fc6\u6027\u6216\u6301\u7eed\u6027)\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u5df2\u88ab\u5e94\u7528\u4e8e\u533b\u5b66\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u5de5\u7a0b\u3001\u6c14\u5019\u3001\u6587\u5b66\u7b49\u8bf8\u591a\u9886\u57df\u3002<sup>[18]<\/sup>\u6307\u6570\u539f\u7406\u5982\u4e0b:X={X(t),t=1,2,3,&#8230;,n}\u4ee5\u4e3a\u534f\u65b9\u5dee\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e3a\u4f8b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u81ea\u76f8\u5173\u51fd\u6570r(k),k\u22650\uff0c\u6ee1\u8db3:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_-5.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8302\" width=\"509\" height=\"70\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_-5.png 830w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_-5-300x41.png 300w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_-5-768x105.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 509px) 100vw, 509px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f53H=0.5\uff0c\u79f0\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e3a\u5e03\u6717\u8fd0\u52a8(\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b);\u5f530.5&lt;H&lt;1\u65f6\uff0c\u79f0\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5177\u6709\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0cH\u8d8a\u5927\u5219\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5c31\u8d8a\u5f3a(\u610f\u5473\u7740\u8d8b\u52bf\u6216\u8005\u60ef\u6027\u8d8a\u5f3a);\u5f530&lt;H&lt;0.5\u65f6\uff0c\u79f0\u8be5\u968f\u673a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u662f\u9006\u957f\u7a0b\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u8ba1\u7b97Hurst\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u79cd\uff0c\u6700\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u662f\u53bb\u8d8b\u52bf\u6ce2\u52a8\u5206\u6790(Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, DFA)\u3002\u4f46DFA\u65b9\u6cd5\u5c06\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217X(t)\u5206\u5272\u4e3a\u4e0d\u91cd\u53e0\u7684\u7b49\u957f\u5ea6\u7684\u5b50\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u76f8\u90bb\u4e24\u4e2a\u7a97\u53e3\u4e0b\u62df\u5408\u7684\u591a\u9879\u5f0f\u5728\u5176\u7a97\u53e3\u4ea4\u754c\u5904\u662f\u4e0d\u8fde\u7eed\u7684(\u89c1\u56fe1(a)\u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\u548c\u7eff\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf\u5728\u5176\u4ea4\u754c\u5904\u662f\u65ad\u5f00\u7684)\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4H\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73b0\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u4e3a\u907f\u514d\u4e0a\u8ff0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u9ad8\u5251\u6ce2\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u51fa\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u5206\u5f62\u5206\u6790(Adaptive Fractal Analysis, AFA)\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c<sup>[19]<\/sup>\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u76f8\u90bb\u4e24\u6bb5\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e4b\u95f4\u91cd\u53e0\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u70b9\u662f\u76f8\u540c\u7684(\u89c1\u56fe1(b)\u4e2d\u7684\u7ea2\u8272\u4e0e\u7eff\u8272\u66f2\u7ebf)\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u63d0\u5347H\u4f30\u7b97\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u3002\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u5206\u5f62\u5206\u6790(AFA)\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u8ba1\u7b97Hurst\u6307\u6570\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u8fc7\u7a0b\u5982\u4e0b:\u901a\u8fc7\u9009\u53d6\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7a97\u53e3\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bfv(i)\u548c\u539f\u59cb\u5e8f\u5217u(i)\u76f8\u51cf\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u65b9\u5dee\u53ef\u4ee5\u523b\u753b\u56f4\u7ed5\u5728\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bf\u9644\u8fd1\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3002\u5177\u4f53\u8ba1\u7b97\u5982\u4e0b:\u5047\u8bbe\u4ece\u4e00\u4e2a\u5e73\u7a33\u7684\u589e\u91cf\u8fc7\u7a0bx(1),x(2),x(3),&#8230;\u51fa\u53d1\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u65b9\u7a0b(3)\u6784\u5efa\u4e00\u4e2a\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u8fc7\u7a0b:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8310\" width=\"480\" height=\"59\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image.png 553w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image-300x37.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 480px) 100vw, 480px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5229\u7528\u975e\u7ebf\u6027\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u6ee4\u6ce2\u6355\u6349\u968f\u673a\u6e38\u8d70\u8fc7\u7a0bu(i)\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u5c40\u8d8b\u52bfv(i),i=1,2,&#8230;,N\u3002\u5c06u(i)\u4e0ev(i)\u76f8\u51cf\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u6807\u51c6\u5dee\u4e0e\u7a97\u53e3\u5927\u5c0fw\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b58\u5728\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5173\u7cfb:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8311\" width=\"487\" height=\"71\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image-1.png 553w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image-1-300x43.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 487px) 100vw, 487px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5229\u7528F<sup>(2)<\/sup>(w)\u4e0ew\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u80fd\u591f\u5f88\u597d\u5730\u4f30\u8ba1H\u3002\u5728\u5b9e\u9645\u64cd\u4f5c\u4e2d\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u7ebf\u6027\u62df\u5408\u5f97\u5230\u7684log<sub>2<\/sub>F(w)\u4e0elog<sub>2<\/sub>(w)\u7684\u659c\u7387\u5373\u4e3aH\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5173\u4e8eHurst\u6307\u6570\u5728\u6587\u672c\u60c5\u611f\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u7684\u89e3\u91ca\u5982\u4e0b:<sup>[20]<\/sup>\u5f530.5&lt;H&lt;1\uff0c\u6587\u672c\u5177\u6709\u5f3a\u70c8\u7684\u60c5\u7eea\u3001\u611f\u53d7\u548c\u6001\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e14\u53d9\u4e8b\u5177\u6709\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u6fc0\u52b1\u8bfb\u8005\u7ee7\u7eed\u9605\u8bfb;\u4f46\u662fH\u4e0d\u80fd\u592a\u63a5\u8fd11\uff0c\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd11\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u6545\u4e8b\u7684\u60c5\u8282\u8d8a\u5355\u4e00\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u9605\u8bfb\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6587\u672c\u5c31\u80fd\u638c\u63e1\u6574\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b;\u5f53H=0.5\u65f6\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u53d9\u4e8b\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fde\u8d2f\u6027\uff0c\u6587\u672c\u60c5\u611f\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\u662f\u968f\u673a\u7684\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u65e0\u6cd5\u9884\u6d4b\u60c5\u8282\u7684\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u6574\u4e2a\u6545\u4e8b\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u56e0\u7f3a\u4e4f\u903b\u8f91\u6027\u800c\u9677\u5165\u6df7\u4e71;\u5f530&lt;H&lt;0.5\u65f6\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u60c5\u8282\u5c1a\u672a\u5145\u5206\u5c55\u5f00\u5c31\u7ed3\u675f\u4e86\uff0c\u8bfb\u8005\u9605\u8bfb\u65f6\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u65ad\u5c42\u7684\u611f\u89c9\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u60c5\u8282\u4f3c\u4e4e\u90fd\u5904\u5728\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u5728\u672c\u6587\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5229\u7528\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u63ed\u793a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u80fd\u591f\u5f15\u4eba\u5165\u80dc\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u53ca\u5176\u4e0e\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" 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class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"775\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_8-775x1024.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8305\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_8-775x1024.png 775w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_8-227x300.png 227w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_8-768x1015.png 768w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_8.png 1012w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 775px) 100vw, 775px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe4 \u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" 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https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_9-768x395.png 768w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_9-1536x789.png 1536w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_9.png 1822w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 794px) 100vw, 794px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe5 \u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u756a\u8304\u503c\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4f17\u6240\u5468\u77e5\uff0c\u8bc4\u4f30\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u5426\u6210\u529f\u662f\u4e00\u9879\u590d\u6742\u7684\u4efb\u52a1\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6700\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u7968\u623f\u7edf\u8ba1\u6570\u636e\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u6536\u96c6\u4e13\u4e1a\u5f71\u8bc4\u4eba\u548c\u7535\u5f71\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8981\u4e48\u96be\u4ee5\u51c6\u786e\u8ba1\u7b97(\u5728\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u8ba1\u7b97\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u7968\u623f\u603b\u6536\u5165\u5e76\u4e0d\u96be\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u4fdd\u8bc1\u6ca1\u6709\u9057\u6f0f)\uff0c\u8981\u4e48\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\u592a\u5f3a\u3002\u73b0\u5b9e\u4e2d\uff0c\u5e38\u89c1\u7684\u6307\u6807\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5168\u7403\u6700\u6743\u5a01\u7684\u4e24\u5bb6\u5f71\u89c6\u8bc4\u5206\u673a\u6784\u5206\u522b\u662f\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u7535\u5f71\u8d44\u6599\u5e93(\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7b80\u79f0IMDb)\u548c\u70c2\u756a\u8304(Rotten Tomatoes)\u3002<sup>[21]<\/sup>\u5176\u4e2d\uff0cIMDb\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0e\u7535\u5f71\u3001\u7535\u89c6\u8282\u76ee\u3001\u5bb6\u5ead\u89c6\u9891\u3001\u89c6\u9891\u6e38\u620f\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u7ebf\u5a92\u6d41\u4f53\u5185\u5bb9\u6709\u5173\u7684\u5728\u7ebf\u6570\u636e\u5e93\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u6f14\u5458\u3001\u5236\u4f5c\u4eba\u5458\u548c\u4e2a\u4eba\u4f20\u8bb0\u3001\u60c5\u8282\u6982\u8ff0\u3001\u7410\u4e8b\u3001\u7c89\u4e1d\u548c\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u8bc4\u5206\u3002IMDb\u8bc4\u5206\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4f7f\u7528\u6700\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u5176\u8ba1\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u4fdd\u5bc6\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u662fIMDbTop250\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u662f\u8d1d\u53f6\u65af\u7edf\u8ba1\u7684\u7b97\u6cd5\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u52a0\u6743\u5206\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u6295\u7968\u8005\u7684\u6295\u7968\u548c\u6253\u5206\u3002\u70c2\u756a\u8304\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u7535\u5f71\u76f8\u5173\u8bc4\u8bba\u3001\u8d44\u8baf\u548c\u65b0\u95fb\u4e3a\u4e3b\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7f51\u7ad9\uff0c\u8be5\u7f51\u7ad9\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e86\u6bcf\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8bc4\u8bba\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u4e3a\u7535\u5f71\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u5f71\u8ff7\u7684\u9996\u9009\u76ee\u7684\u5730\u3002\u8be5\u7f51\u7ad9\u5bf9\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u662f\u4ee5\u6240\u6709\u7f51\u7ad9\u8ba4\u8bc1\u5f71\u8bc4\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\uff0c\u6839\u636e\u5f71\u8bc4\u4eba\u7684\u8bc4\u4ef7\u8ba4\u5b9a\u8be5\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u662f\u597d(\u65b0\u9c9c\u756a\u8304)\u8fd8\u662f\u4e0d\u597d(\u70c2\u756a\u8304)\uff0c\u5e76\u4f7f\u7528\u6574\u4f53\u6570\u636e(aggregate data)\u6765\u51b3\u5b9a\u8bc4\u8bba\u662f\u6b63\u9762(\u201c\u65b0\u9c9c\u201d\uff0cfresh)\u6216\u8005\u8d1f\u9762(\u201c\u8150\u70c2\u201d\uff0crotten)\u3002\u672c\u6587\u9009\u53d6\u70c2\u756a\u8304\u548cIMDb\u4e0a\u5173\u4e8e\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u4e0e\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u89c1\u56fe5\u548c\u56fe6\u3002<sup>[22]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe5\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u70c2\u756a\u8304\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u6307\u6807\u756a\u8304\u503c(Tomatometer)\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u56fe\u4e2d\u5de6\u8fb9\u7eb5\u5750\u6807\u8f74\u662fHurst\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u53f3\u8fb9\u662f\u756a\u8304\u503c\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5f53Hurst\u6307\u6570\u8f83\u9ad8\u65f6\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u5f97\u5230\u8bc4\u5206\u5c31\u4f1a\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4e5f\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u8ba1\u7b97\u4e86\u524d6\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u756a\u8304\u503c\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570<sup>[23]<\/sup>\u4e3a-0.8\uff0c\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u3002\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u4e0e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u5723\u5668II\u300b\u4f5c\u4e3a\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u90e8\u5f71\u89c6\u4f5c\u54c1\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6240\u6709\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u8bc4\u5206\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u8bc4\u5206\u548cHurst\u6307\u6570\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u90e8\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u66f4\u591a\u5730\u4f53\u73b0\u4e86\u4e13\u5bb6\u6216\u8005\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u6240\u4fdd\u6709\u7684\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u6000\uff0c\u53e3\u7891\u548c\u8bc4\u5206\u81ea\u7136\u5f88\u9ad8\u3002\u56fe6\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0eIMDb\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u524d\u516d\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0eIMDb\u8bc4\u5206(IMDb sore)\u7684\u76ae\u5c14\u900a\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u4e3a-0.66\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e8c\u8005\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-1024x549.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-8307\" width=\"804\" height=\"431\" srcset=\"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-1024x549.png 1024w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-1536x823.png 1536w, https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Tu_Pian_10-2048x1097.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 804px) 100vw, 804px\" \/><figcaption>\u56fe6 \u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0eIMDb\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u76f8\u5173\u6027<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u56fe5\u548c\u56fe6\u7684\u7ed3\u679c\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u5176\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u5b58\u5728\u7740\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5373\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u5c31\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u6839\u636e\u524d\u6587\u9610\u8ff0\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u800c\u8a00\uff0cHurst\u8d8a\u63a5\u8fd10.5\uff0c\u5728\u6545\u4e8b\u60c5\u8282\u6709\u8f83\u5b8c\u6574\u5c55\u5f00\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0c\u60c5\u8282\u6ce2\u52a8\u8d8a\u5267\u70c8\uff0c\u8d8a\u80fd\u5438\u5f15\u89c2\u4f17\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u8d8a\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\uff0c\u8bc4\u5206\u5c31\u8d8a\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u65e0\u8bba\u662fIMDb\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u70c2\u756a\u8304\uff0c\u5bf9\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u90fd\u5e26\u6709\u5f88\u5f3a\u7684\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u5176\u6253\u5206\u4e0e\u4e8b\u5b9e\u6709\u51fa\u5165\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u800c\u57fa\u4e8e\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5219\u662f\u6839\u636e\u7535\u5f71\u4e2d\u6240\u8574\u542b\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u5ba2\u89c2\u6307\u6807\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0eIMDb\u548c\u70c2\u756a\u8304\u4e0a\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u6709\u7740\u8f83\u597d\u7684\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e:\u5c06\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u7528\u4e8e\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u4ef7\uff0c\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u5ba2\u89c2\u516c\u6b63\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u7ed3 \u8bba<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u8fd0\u7528\u81ea\u76f8\u4f3c\u5206\u5f62\u7406\u8bba\u4e2d\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u5bf9\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u8fdb\u884c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u5e76\u5c06\u8be5\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u4e24\u5927\u6743\u5a01\u5f71\u8bc4\u673a\u6784\u7684\u8bc4\u5206\u8fdb\u884c\u76f8\u5173\u6027\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7ed3\u8bba\u5982\u4e0b:(1)\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u53cd\u6620\u6545\u4e8b\u60c5\u8282\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8d70\u5411;(2)\u901a\u8fc7\u81ea\u9002\u5e94\u5206\u5f62\u5206\u6790(AFA)\u8ba1\u7b97\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u80fd\u591f\u7528\u6765\u89e3\u91ca\u4e3a\u4f55\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u5907\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce;<sup>[24]<\/sup>(3)\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u7535\u5f71\u8bc4\u5206\u5448\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\uff0c\u5373\u60c5\u8282\u8d8a\u7d27\u51d1\uff0c\u6545\u4e8b\u4e2d\u7684\u51b2\u7a81\u8d8a\u96c6\u4e2d\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u5c31\u8d8a\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u672c\u7814\u7a76\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ec5\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5267\u672c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eba\u7269\u52a8\u4f5c\u3001\u5fc3\u7406\u6d3b\u52a8\u548c\u9762\u90e8\u8868\u60c5\u53ca\u89d2\u8272\u6240\u5904\u7684\u73af\u5883\u63cf\u5199\u5747\u7f3a\u5931\uff0c\u663e\u7136\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u5267\u672c\u5c06\u4f1a\u6bd4\u53f0\u8bcd\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7ed3\u8bba\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5267\u672c\u7684\u521b\u4f5c\u548c\u6539\u7f16\u4e5f\u5177\u6709\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53c2\u8003\u4ef7\u503c\u3002\u5f53\u7f16\u5267\u6b63\u5728\u7f16\u5199\u6216\u6539\u7f16\u5267\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u5229\u7528Hurst\u6307\u6570\u80fd\u591f\u5e2e\u52a9\u5176\u8bbe\u5b9a\u548c\u8c03\u6574\u6545\u4e8b\u60c5\u8282\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5f53\u5236\u7247\u4eba\u548c\u5bfc\u6f14\u6536\u5230\u65b0\u7684\u5f71\u89c6\u5267\u672c\u65f6\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5267\u672c\u60c5\u611f\u65f6\u95f4\u5e8f\u5217\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u4ed6\u4eec\u5224\u65ad\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5267\u672c\u662f\u5426\u503c\u5f97\u6295\u8d44\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#b7b7b7\" class=\"has-inline-color\">\u672c\u6587\u4e3a\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u9762\u4e0a\u9879\u76ee(No. 41671532)\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u81ea\u7136\u79d1\u5b66\u57fa\u91d1\u5730\u533a\u9879\u76ee(No. 71661002)\u9636\u6bb5\u6027\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u53d7\u4e2d\u592e\u9ad8\u6821\u57fa\u672c\u79d1\u7814\u4e1a\u52a1\u8d39\u4e13\u9879\u8d44\u91d1(The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities)\u8d44\u52a9\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size\"><strong><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Objective Evaluation of the Harry Potter Movie Series: Insights from Self-Similar Fractal Sentiment Dynamics<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hu Qiyue, Liu Bin, Gao Jianbo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Abstract:&nbsp;<\/strong>Since the first appearance, the Harry Potter novels and movies series have been widely acclaimed, captivating not only children but also adults. They have gained a good reputation on the two major film review websites: Rotten Tomatoes and Internet Movie Database (IMDb), and have achieved great commercial success. However, the film ratings given by these institutions are highly subjective. Is it possible to find an objective evaluation index based on the sentiment of movie lines? In the view of this, we use the Hurst parameter from random fractal theory to characterize the sentiment dynamics of the movie lines of Harry Potter series. The results show that Hurst parameter is [0.5, 0.7], which means that while each film reveals a lot of interesting information, the plots of the stories have also rather well developed. Interestingly, we have found that there is a good negative correlation between Hurst parameter and the movie scores of Rotten Tomatoes and IMDb, indicating that the Hurst parameter can help evaluate the popularity of the films. This offers a possibility for objectively evaluating movies and provides a reference for investors to decide whether a new movie is worth investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\"><strong>Keywords:&nbsp;<\/strong>Harry Potter; Sentiment Analysis; Adaptive Fractal Analysis (AFA)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span style=\"color:#0071a1\" class=\"has-inline-color\">&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-right\"><br>\u7f16&nbsp;\u8f91&nbsp; | \u8d75\u8587<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u6ce8\u91ca\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[1]<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Harry_Potter, accessed August 2, 2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Harry_Potter,<\/a> accessed August 2, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[2]<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Harry_Potter_(film_series)\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Harry_Potter_(film_series)<\/a>;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/ search\/?q=Harrypotter. accessed August 2, 2020.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"> https:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/ search\/?q=Harrypotter.<\/a> accessed August 2, 2020<a href=\"https:\/\/www.boxofficemojo.com\/ search\/?q=Harrypotter. accessed August 2, 2020.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[3]Erik Cambria,\u201cAffective Computing and Sentiment Analysis,\u201d<em>IEEE Intelligent Systems<\/em>, vol. 31,.no. 2, 2016, pp. 102-107.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[4]Andrew J. Reagan et al.\u201c, Sentiment Analysis Methods for Understanding Large-Scale Texts: A Case for Using Continuum-Scored Words and Word Shift Graphs,\u201d<em>EPJ Data Science<\/em>, vol. 6, no. 1, 2017, pp. 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[5]Tony Mullen, Nigel Collier\u201c, Sentiment Analysis Using Support Vector Machines with Diverse Information Sources,\u201dProceedings of the 2004 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, 2004.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[6]Finn \u00c5rup Nielsen\u201c, A New ANEW: Evaluation of A Word list for Sentiment Analysis in Microblogs,\u201darXiv preprint arXiv:1103.2903, 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[7]L. Zhang, B. Liu\u201c, Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining, Encyclopedia of Machine Learning and Data Mining,\u201dBoston: Springer, MA, 2017:1152C1161; Erik Cambria et al.\u201c, New avenues in Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis,\u201d<em>IEEE Intelligent Systems<\/em>, vol. 28, no. 2, 2013, pp. 15-21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[8]X. Weng et al.,\u201cThe Comment of BBS: How Investor Sentiment Affects a Share Market of China,\u201d International Conference on Machine Learning for Networking, Springer, Cham, 2018, pp. 270-278; C. Dos Santos, M. Gatti,\u201cDeep Convolutional Neural Networks for Sentiment Analysis of Short texts,\u201d Proceedings of COLING 2014, the 25th International Conference on Computational Linguistics: Technical Papers, 2014, pp. 69-78; M.Wevers, J. Gao, K. L.Nielbo,\u201cTracking the Consumption Junction: Temporal Dependencies between Articles and Advertisements in Dutch Newspapers,\u201darXiv preprint arXiv:1903.11461, 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[9]Julian Brooke, Adam Hammond and Graeme Hirst,\u201cGutenTag: An NLP-DrivenTool for Digital Humanities Research in the Project Gutenberg Corpus,\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cs.toronto.edu\/pub\/gh\/Brooke-etal- 2015-CLfL.pdf, accessed August 2, 2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.cs.toronto.edu\/pub\/gh\/Brooke-etal- 2015-CLfL.pdf<\/a>, accessed August 2, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[10]Matthew L. Jockers\u201c, Syuzhet: Extracts Sentiment and Sentiment-Derived Plot Arcs from Text,\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/ cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/syuzhet\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/ cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/syuzhet\/index.html<\/a>, accessed May 10, 2019;Andrew J. Reagan et al., \u201cTheemotionalarcsofstoriesaredominatedbysixbasicshapes,\u201d<em>EPJDataScience<\/em>,vol.5,no.1,2016,pp.31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[11]Reagan et al.\u201c, The emotional,\u201dpp. 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[12]Philip Nel\u201c, Lost in Translation? Harry Potter, from Page to Screen,\u201d<em>Critical Perspectives on Harry Potter 2<\/em>, 2009, pp. 275-290.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[13]Matthew L. Jockers,\u201cSyuzhet: Extracts,\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/syuzhet\/index.html, Accessed May 10, 2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/cran.r-project.org\/web\/packages\/syuzhet\/index.html,<\/a> Accessed May 10, 2019; Matthew L. Jockers,\u201cMore Syuzhet Validation,\u201d<a href=\"http:\/\/www.matthewjock ers. net\/2016\/08\/11\/more-syuzhet-validation\/, accessed May 10, 2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">http:\/\/www.matthewjock ers. net\/2016\/08\/11\/more-syuzhet-validation\/<\/a>, accessed May 10, 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[14]Gao Jianbo et al.,\u201cA multiscale theory for the dynamical evolution of sentiment in novels,\u201d2016 International Conference on Behavioral, Economic and Socio-cultural Computing (BESC),&nbsp;<em>IEEE<\/em>, 2016; Dai Kaiyun, Ma Menglan and Gao Jianbo,\u201cSentiment Dynamics of The Chronicles of Narnia and Their Ranking,\u201dInternational Conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction and Behavior Representation in Modeling and Simulation, Springer, Cham, 2018; Q. Hu et al.,\u201cDynamic Evolution of Sentiments in Never Let Me Go: Lnsights from Quantitative Analysis and Implications,\u201d2019 6th International Conference on Behavioral, Economic and Socio-Cultural Computing (BESC),&nbsp;<em>IEEE<\/em>, 2019, PP. 1-6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[15]Gao Jianbo et al.,\u201cDenoising Nonlinear Time Series by Adaptive Filtering and Wavelet Shrinkage: A Comparison,\u201d<em>IEEE Signal Processing Letters<\/em>, vol. 17, 2010, pp. 237-240; Hu Jing, Gao Jianbo and Wang Xingsong,\u201cMultifractal Analysis of Sunspot Time Series: The Effects of The 11-year Cycle and Fourier Truncation,\u201d<em>Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment<\/em>, vol. 02, 2009; Gao Jianbo et al.,&nbsp;<em>Multiscale Analysis of Complex Time Series, Integration of Chaos and Random Fractal Theory and Beyond<\/em>, USA: John Wily &amp; Sons. Inc., 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[16]Gao Jianbo et al.\u201c, Denoising Nonlinear,\u201dpp. 237-240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[17]\u9ad8\u5251\u6ce2:\u300a\u201c\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def\u201d\u5927\u6570\u636e\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790:\u4efb\u52a1\u3001\u6311\u6218\u53ca\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u5317\u4eac:\u79d1\u5b66\u51fa\u7248\u793e\uff0c2018\u5e74\uff0c\u7b2c41\u201443\u9875\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[18]A. Carbone, G. Castelli and H. E. Stanley,\u201cTime-Dependent Hurst Exponent in Financial Time Series,\u201d&nbsp;<em>Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications<\/em>, vol. 344, nos.1\/2, 2004, pp. 267-271; M. A. Riley et al.\u201c, A Tutorial Introduction to Adaptive Fractal Analysis,\u201d<em>Frontiers in Physiology<\/em>, vol. 3, 2012, pp. 371; Gao Jianbo, J. Hu, W. Tung,\u201cComplexity Measures of Brain Wave Dynamics,\u201d<em>Cognitive neurodynamics<\/em>, vol. 5, no. 2, 2011, pp. 171-182; Gao Jianbo et al.,\u201cCulturomics Meets Random Fractal Theory: Insights into Long-Range Correlations of Social and Natural Phenomena over the Past Two Centuries,\u201d<em>Journal of The Royal Society Interface<\/em>, vol. 9, no. 73, 2012, pp. 1956-1964; Gao Jianbo et al.\u201c, A Aultiscale Theory for the Dynamical Evolution of Sentiment in Novels,\u201d2016 International Conference on Behavioral, Economic and Socio-cultural Computing (BESC),&nbsp;<em>IEEE<\/em>, 2016, PP. 1-4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[19]Gao Jianbo et al.,&nbsp;<em>Multiscale Analysis of Complex Time Series, Integration of Chaos and Random Fractal Theory and Beyond<\/em>, USA: John Wily &amp; Sons. Inc., 2007.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[20]Q. Hu et al.\u201c, Dynamic Evolution of Sentiments in Never Let Me Go: 2 Insights from Multifractal Theory and Its Implications for literary Analysis,\u201d<em>Digital Scholarship in the Humanities<\/em>, 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[21]<a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/<\/a>, accessed September 19, 2019; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">https:\/\/www.rottentomatoes.com\/<\/a>, accessed September 19, 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[22]\u56e0\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6837\u672c\u70b9\u8fc7\u5c11\uff0c\u6587\u4e2d\u5e76\u672a\u7ed8\u5236\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u53f0\u8bcd\u7684Hurst\u6307\u6570\u4e0e\u8bc4\u5206\u7684\u6563\u70b9\u56fe\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u91c7\u7528\u4e86\u66f4\u4e3a\u76f4\u89c2\u7684\u56fe\u5f62\u4e0e\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u7ed3\u5408\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[23]\u56e0\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7535\u5f71\u6700\u540e\u4e00\u7bc7\u5206\u4e3a\u4e0a\u4e0b\u4e24\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u4e14\u53d7\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd(\u5982\u89c2\u4f17\u5bf9\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u201c\u60c5\u6000\u201d)\u8f83\u5927\uff0c\u6545\u6587\u4e2d\u4ec5\u5bf9\u8be5\u7cfb\u5217\u524d6\u90e8\u7684\u53f0\u8bcd\u60c5\u611f\u5e8f\u5217\u7684H\u6307\u6570\u548c\u8bc4\u5206\u8ba1\u7b97\u76f8\u5173\u7cfb\u6570\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size\">[24]\u5bcc\u6709\u5438\u5f15\u529b\u7684\u5267\u60c5\u80fd\u591f\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u4e3a\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u8d62\u5f97\u89c2\u4f17\u7684\u9752\u7750\uff0c\u4f46\u5ba1\u7f8e\u5177\u6709\u4e3b\u89c2\u6027\uff0c\u7535\u5f71\u80fd\u5426\u5907\u53d7\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u4f1a\u53d7\u89c2\u4f17\u77e5\u8bc6\u6c34\u5e73\u3001\u5e74\u9f84\u7b49\u591a\u79cd\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7535\u5f71\u4f5c\u54c1\u4f20\u8fbe\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u80fd\u591f\u88ab\u89c2\u5f71\u8005\u9886\u4f1a\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u65e2\u8981\u770b\u521b\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u529f\u529b\uff0c\u4e5f\u8981\u770b\u63a5\u53d7\u8005\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e00\u90e8\u7535\u5f71\u80fd\u5426\u5927\u8303\u56f4\u53d7\u5230\u6b22\u8fce\uff0c\u8fd8\u4f1a\u53d7\u5404\u79cd\u5ba2\u89c2\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6280\u672f\u6c34\u51c6\u3001\u89c2\u5f71\u6761\u4ef6\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u4e0d\u5728\u672c\u6587\u6240\u8981\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u8303\u56f4\u4e4b\u5185\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u539f\u520a\u300a\u6570\u5b57\u4eba\u6587\u300b2021\u5e74\u7b2c1\u671f\uff0c\u8f6c\u8f7d\u8bf7\u8054\u7cfb\u6388\u6743\u3002<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u81ea\u95ee\u4e16\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u54c8\u5229\u00b7\u6ce2\u7279\u7cfb\u5217\u7684\u539f\u8457\u548c\u7535\u5f71\u5c31\u5e7f\u53d7\u597d\u8bc4\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u513f\u7ae5\uff0c\u4e5f\u5438\u5f15\u4e86\u6210\u4eba\u2026\u2026<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[2194],"tags":[2429,2533,347,2059,2534],"class_list":["post-8299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-2194","tag-2429","tag-2533","tag-347","tag-2059","tag-afa"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":6}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8299"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8314,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8299\/revisions\/8314"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8304"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8299"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8299"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/achieve.dhcn.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8299"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}